From Deforestation to Resilience: Pathways for Sustainable Community Development in Ratuwa River Basin Nepal

Abstract

The Churia region of Nepal represents one of the most ecologically fragile landscapes in the Himalayan foothills, providing critical ecosystem services including water regulation, soil conservation, carbon sequestration, and biodiversity habitat. This study examined land cover alterations and their effects on ecosystem services in the Ratuwa River System from 1990 to 2025, employing an integrated approach combining remote sensing analysis, ecosystem service modeling using InVEST and RUSLE, hydrological modeling with SWAT, and socio-economic surveys with 300 households. Findings reveal significant land cover transformations: forest cover declined by 35%, wetlands by 20%, while agricultural land expanded by 25% and settlements more than doubled. These changes severely degraded water regulation services with a 40% increase in surface runoff, 30% reduction in groundwater recharge, and 50% rise in flood frequency. Soil erosion increased from 18.7 to 32.4 t ha⁻¹ year⁻¹, with agriculture contributing 76.5% of total soil loss. Carbon storage declined by 30.5% from 12.8 to 8.9 million tons, and habitat quality decreased from 0.72 to 0.51. Communities face declining agricultural yields, water scarcity, and heightened flood vulnerability, with marginalized households disproportionately affected. While community-led restoration demonstrates promise, long-term sustainability requires sustained institutional support. The study concludes that an integrated landscape governance framework prioritizing forest restoration, sustainable agriculture, and community engagement is essential for building resilience and achieving sustainable development in Nepal's Churia region.