Using The ARIAM Model To Predict Future Values Of Outflow For The Kufa Barrage University Of Babylon- Civil Engineering College- Master Water Resources- Iraq –Babylon
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.29284/dfmxnm32Keywords:
Minitab 22 Software, Kufa Barrage, ARIMA ModelAbstract
Water resource management for dam reservoirs requires comprehensive information on expected future water availability. Our current study focuses on the Kufa Dam, located on the Euphrates River in Najaf Governorate, specifically in the Kufa District. We analyzed the time series of outflow data for a period of 31 years (1994–2024) to study short-term hydrological trends. A linear trend model was applied to the historical data, resulting in a series of future outflows that were predicted using conventional time series modeling techniques. The Minitab 22 statistical software was used for all time series analyses, including model fit and prediction. This study presents the data, statistical results, and predictions in tables and graphs, providing a clear view for future water resource planning and reservoir management strategies. The study concluded that the ARIMA (2,1,2) model is the most suitable among the selected models for modeling and predicting the selected time series data.
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This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
